Honey Supply Risk Index
Which varieties will climate change make scarce — and which are already priced for it?
Not all honey is equally vulnerable to a changing climate. Tupelo honey grows in one river basin in Florida. Sage honey grows in one state’s coastal chaparral. Both score at the top of this index. Meanwhile, manuka honey averages $58 a listing in our catalogue despite having lower supply risk than heather, sourwood, or blueberry honey.
The Honey Supply Risk Index scores 16 varieties across three factors to answer a simple question: which honeys should you buy while you still can, and which are safe staples?
The Three-Factor Framework
Each variety is scored on three dimensions. Climate Threat is weighted most heavily (2.5×) because it is the direction of travel — even a geographically distributed variety can face concentrated risk if its ecosystem type is globally threatened.
Risk Rankings — All 16 Varieties
Sorted highest to lowest composite risk score.
Risk Map: Concentration vs. Climate Threat
Each bubble is one floral source; size = number of catalogue listings. Upper-right quadrant = highest combined risk.
Bubble size ∝ number of catalogue listings. Jitter applied where two varieties share identical G/C values.
Critical Zone: 5 Varieties in Jeopardy
Sea-level rise + altered swamp hydrology
Megadrought + megafire destroying chaparral
California water scarcity — groves abandoned
Erratic spring frost + summer Appalachian drought
Bloom–bee synchrony breakdown as spring warms unevenly
Risk vs. Average Listing Price
If supply risk set prices, the most climate-vulnerable honeys would be the most expensive. In our catalogue they are not: 2 of the 5 critical-risk varieties average less than the catalogue’s non-Manuka mean of $18.27 a listing, and the most expensive variety, Manuka, scores moderate risk. Listing prices mix jar sizes, so treat small gaps as noise.
Manuka honey scores moderate risk (52/100) — New Zealand is actively scaling cultivation and the shrub is hardy. In our catalogue its price tracks the MGO grade printed on the jar (see the MGO price curve), not supply risk. Heather honey ($15.28/listing, score 68) and sourwood ($18.86/listing, score 80) are both more climate-vulnerable and cheaper.
Full Index — All 16 Varieties
| Variety | G | W | C | Score | Avg Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tupelo Apalachicola River, FL | 5 | 5 | 5 | 100 | $25 |
| Sage California coastal chaparral | 5 | 4 | 5 | 95 | $19 |
| Avocado California & Hawaii | 4 | 4 | 5 | 88 | $15 |
| Sourwood Appalachian ridge, NC/TN/GA | 4 | 4 | 4 | 80 | $19 |
| Blueberry Maine, NJ, MI, Pacific NW | 4 | 4 | 4 | 80 | $13 |
| Orange Blossom FL, CA, Spain, Mexico | 3 | 4 | 4 | 73 | $19 |
| Heather Scotland, Ireland, N. Europe | 3 | 3 | 4 | 68 | $15 |
| Linden Central & Eastern Europe | 2 | 5 | 3 | 63 | $11 |
| Eucalyptus Australia, CA, Spain | 2 | 2 | 4 | 57 | $16 |
| Lavender Provence, Spain, Tuscany | 2 | 3 | 3 | 53 | $15 |
| Chestnut Italy, France, Spain | 2 | 3 | 3 | 53 | $24 |
| Manuka New Zealand, SE Australia | 3 | 3 | 2 | 52 | $58 |
| Buckwheat NY, PA, MN, Canada, Europe | 2 | 2 | 3 | 48 | $16 |
| Acacia Eastern & Central Europe | 1 | 3 | 2 | 38 | $15 |
| Clover Temperate zones globally | 1 | 1 | 2 | 28 | $13 |
| Wildflower Everywhere temperate | 1 | 1 | 1 | 20 | $19 |
G = Geographic Concentration · W = Harvest Window Risk · C = Climate Threat · Score = (G×2 + W×1.5 + C×2.5) / 30 × 100
Resilient Staples: The Safe Harbors
Three varieties score below 40 — genuinely resilient across all three dimensions.
Wildflower honey’s resilience is structural, not accidental. A wildflower honey jar contains pollen from dozens of species across an entire season. When one plant fails, others compensate — botanical diversity is the hedge. This is the same logic behind multi-factor financial portfolios and polyculture farming. By contrast, specialty varieties like tupelo or sage honey depend entirely on single botanical sources.
Practical Pantry Strategy
These will become harder to source and more expensive. Buy from small US producers — they're transparent about harvest conditions and you'll know when seasons are poor.
High risk but not yet in crisis. Follow producers in these regions — a poor season is now meaningful news, not a routine weather complaint.
Moderate risk, manageable supply. Don't overpay for manuka's MGO marketing — there are cheaper high-quality options in this tier.
Low supply risk, globally sourced. These are your everyday cooking honeys — buy the best quality you can afford but don't worry about stockpiling.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which honey is most at risk from climate change?▾
Why is manuka honey so expensive if its supply risk is moderate?▾
Why is tupelo honey the highest-risk variety?▾
Is sage honey really more climate-vulnerable than manuka?▾
What does "geographic concentration" mean for honey supply risk?▾
Will clover and wildflower honey always be available?▾
How was the Honey Supply Risk Index calculated?▾
Should I buy extra tupelo or sourwood honey now before prices rise?▾
Edited by Sam French · Raw Honey Guide Editorial Team
Source reviewed against primary literature and official guidance where available. Health content is educational, not medical advice, and does not replace a licensed clinician.